THE CHASE
BALLON D’OR 2026

LAMINEYAMAL

60.30%
+27.75 pts ahead of Kane
01 OCT 2026 21:00 UTC
23 SEP27 SEP01 OCT05 OCT08 OCT
BEHIND THE STORY

A real shift.
A carefully told story.

Market-implied prices19/19 OBSERVEDArchived Polymarket prices · Not live

Yamal led all 72 hourly observations in the October 1–4 window. Finer sampling shows Kane moving back ahead by October 4 at 09:15 UTC. It was a sustained surge, not 72 hours of uninterrupted leadership.

Kane and Yamal’s median daily combined price rose from 78.00% to 92.96% across our post–September 8 comparison windows.

Prices are archived API observations, not survey results. Missing observations stay missing. Current resolution rules align; historical spreads and depth remain unverified. Animation is editorial and does not represent trades, capital flow, or the exact time a real-world event occurred.

Read the full analysis ↗